“Rex. Do you remember showing us your portfolio of stocks the last time we met at the aquarium?”
“Sure I do. But why are you guys always rubbing in? You know it hurts every time I look at it. No, I should say it hurts at the sheer thought of it! Why are you asking?”
“Do you remember why you bought those stocks?”
“Nope! I told you it hurts at the thought of it. But I sure remember those magic moments when I watched some of my great picks ticked up, up and up before my eyes. Nothing comes close to beating those heavenly feelings. It’s simply a spectacle and it’s ten times more sensational than watching Steven Spielberg’s blockbusters! Two thumbs up, including my feet! Hmmm....that gives me an idea! Shall we make a movie that shows nothing but stock prices ticking up all the way through the roof?”
“Rex. Let's see if we can recreate that feeling for you.”
“You mean you like my idea about the movie? We can make a 3D version of it...make the chart pop out of the screen. I’m sure the spectators will be blown out of their seats and screaming for more! Or how about a theme park with a roller coaster that incorporates a steep dive that mimics the stock market plunge during the recent Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Look how wasted I am to be working at an aquarium. My ideas are all original you know?”
“Rex. We’re beginning your first lesson with us on how to select stocks. So we need your attention back with us from now on. Stay with us here, okay? Now can you answer our question on why you bought those three stocks?”
Rex reached his hand into his pocket and flashed out his new Apple i-pod 3G[s], but strangely in pink colour. “Cool yeah? Okay let's see, here it is. I got stuck to this stock because my friend worked in the company. He told me that his company had invented a special technology that could make a light bulb shine a hundred times brighter but uses only a fraction of the energy needed by conventional bulbs. They’ve already made plans to build a new production plant. I was sure the market would be very excited by the prospect of it. That’s why I bought it. But the stock hasn’t moved since.”
“What about the second stock?” we asked.
“Well. I got an email from the brokerage on its analyst’s buy recommendation. It said they were upgrading the stock to a ‘BUY’ call because it had won a contract which was worth some US5 billion to provide infrastructure solution to the state over the next five years. They worked out that the contract would significantly contribute to its bottom line with a tempting price target which I couldn’t resist. I thought it made sense. The stock indeed moved up a little but I didn’t sell because it never hit the target price. Now it’s way below. Strange.”
“Tell us about the third, Rex.”
“Well, I bought the stock thinking that it had done enough price correction. I thought it was cheap because the price was some 30% off its peak time. But sadly, the stock market and I seem to differ on our opinion on what’s cheap. I just can't understand why we can't see eye to eye on that one for once.”
“Rex, if you really wish to make cool money from the market, you don’t want to be depending on recommendations and tips or guts feel. You know that’s not going to work for the long run. We will share with you an unorthodox criterion on whether you should invest in a stock or give it a pass. This perspective is held by all the professionals who are making millions from the stock market. We have hardly heard this criterion among the average investors or traders except for a few sophisticated investors. These market-savvy have only one question to ask when anyone offers them a buy recommendation. They would certainly ask: What is the story line?"
“What do they mean by that? What has a story to do with the buying and selling of shares in the stock market?” Rex asked curiously.
“That’s the standard industry jargon. It’s a term that the professional market players used among themselves. It refers to the selling point[s] of a stock. And anything that links well to the prospect of better earnings performance is a good selling point, a good story. The more promising they can make the future earnings prospect sound, the better is the selling point; the story. The more selling points a stock has, the more stories a stock tell, the longer is the storyline, the easier it is for the pros to sell their stocks to the public. No matter how a story is painted, it always will and must imply on this fundamental aspect of a company. It’s all about the prospects of earnings, earnings and earnings.”
“Hmmm...selling points...but you’re making it sound like stocks are nothing but some products. I thought stock selection should go by some specific criteria like low P/E, high ROE, conservative debts, etc.”
“Rex you are not wrong at all. In fact, you’ve just named some of those selling points we are talking about. But what if a stock has none of those good fundamentals however suddenly announced its winning of a multi-dollar contract? Would it not move? Do you still remember what happened during the Dot.Com Era? How did those stocks sell like hotcakes when most of them weren’t even profitable at all; some were in fact loss-making. Anybody in the right mind wouldn't have bought them. But every of those dotcom IPOs came with a story about how they could achieve great earnings with the world being their customers at a click. It's was easy to believe. It was irresistibly logical. People were buying the stories, not the stocks.”
“Well yeah good! So now I can throw away all those texts and books that give me all the stringent criteria for stock selection and go for the stories! You know how much I hate numbers...”
“Rex, you need some flexibility. Numbers are important so that you don't pay a fortune for a stock that’s not worth your penny. But what we are trying to inculcate is the perspective of true trading and investment. You’ve got to look at the stocks as ‘products’ that you buy for the purpose of selling for a profit. In fact, there’s nothing new about this simple perspective. Intelligent merchants know two things are important to him; Price and demand. It's a universal rule of trading and investment.”
“And selling points create, breed and build demand.” Rex added. He seemed to have gotten the point.
“Exactly Rex. Selling points are what compel and motivate people into buying something; what seduce demand. It's the same with stocks. And what we’re telling you is that stories that link to the prospect of good earnings is the only best selling point.”
“Now, the difference is really between a seller’s and buyer’s mentality. The smart always think selling before they consider buying. They know that it is easy to buy a stock. But to resell the stock at a higher price, they know that there must be something ‘sexy’, appealing or exciting enough to lure the buyers into paying the premium they want. It is this big difference in stock selections between the professional and the average market players that makes them more consistent and profitable at it. Unlike most people who buy selling points or stories for themselves and for their own good reasons, the professionals look for stocks with selling points or story others want to buy. They know that the worst stocks can sell with the best stories. It’s like advertisements and marketing. And that’s Rule #1 on stock selection: Buy a stock not because you like the story, but because you think others will like the story. That’s how simple they have kept their stock selection criterion. Get it?”
“Rule #2: Never buy a late story. That’s what happened to you when you bought the shares of the company making light bulbs and the company which had won the US5 billion contract. You actually bought both stories late. Most people, like you, are often too eager to have a piece of the action that they care less about how long the stock has already been played by the story. They just believe that the price will keep going up. They take for granted or assume that someone would buy the stocks from them at a higher price later. They fail to realise that stories work best while it’s hot; not for buyers but for sellers. That means to say that if you don’t sell the stock while the story is still attracting buyers; you’ve got to wait for the next story. And if you are one of those buyers who love to buy when there’s story, you’d better be the very early ones and not the last few.”
“I still don't believe I’ve been buying and selling stories in the stock market and not stocks and shares. How about the last stock which I bought on correction, thinking it was cheap? I bought no stories...no, I bought no stories...yes, I bought no stories. Gotcha!” Rex happily rebutted.
“That’s why you are stuck! There wasn’t even any story. You’ve actually violated Rule #3 of stock selection: Never buy stocks that cannot provide stories. Cheap stock is a good reason but certainly not a good story, not for the professionals. That’s because a stock being ‘technically’ cheap has nothing to do with its earnings prospect. Remember what we just told you about stories? They have got to be linked with the prospects of good future earnings. The only time you’d ever want a cheap stock is you see a story that will help you sell later, but you’ve got to have the holding power to wait for the story to come. Otherwise, cheap is never a good enough reason. So you can see it’s really one big ‘open’ position when you don’t have a story to bail you out. When a stock moves without any apparent reason or story, there are only two possibilities; First, some news are on the way, or it’s a pure ‘mechanical’ (not even technical) move that has no fundamental to it. As a quick pointer, the next time you wish to buy a ‘cheap’ stock, ask yourself a simple question: Will there be a good story to turn the price around? It’s that straight forward; if a stock can't give the market good stories, you don’t want to buy it.”
“You see Rex. Most people are stuck with stocks because they have either bought a wonderful but late story or they must have bought stocks that would never have a good enough story subsequently for them to resell it back into the market at a profit. They got stuck because these stocks had only one story to tell. Once the buying frenzy is over, the stock is left in the cold chamber. People are willing to pay for great stories because they are so afraid to lose money. They need the assurance. They want to hear and buy only the obvious; regardless of higher premiums, higher risks and lower profit margins, if any. But who is not afraid of losing money? We all do. The difference is that we learn to be more careful with our investment; not by being scared, but by being smarter at the game. We can choose to be at the top of the stock market’s ‘food chain'. And that’s what we’re going to show you. From now on, you’ll turn from being someone who buys stories to becoming someone who sells stories; from sucker to seller.”
“Wowee! Sounds like a lot of fun. Ain’t no sucker anymore from now? Seems like a whole new ball game with this new perspective. I see hopes. I see my dreams coming true. I want to be the StockRex of the market, not a Rex at the aquarium. Oh love you guys! But wait a minute. Are you saying that people are making up stories?”
“Rex. It’s a sad reality. It shouldn't surprise you at all. We read them on news about accounting frauds, stock manipulations and rigging and big time scams. It’s human greed that leads to these taking of shortcuts in life to riches. There are always black sheep amongst the white, and there are fake stories amongst the true. You got to learn to protect yourself by being a sceptic; recall what your mama last told you about strangers- never take what they give you. But unlike your big mama, we ask that you take what they give you and sell it to another person instead. As long as you remember Rule #3(Never buy a late story), you don’t have to be afraid of them nor need you avoid them. Just remember not to follow them to their home. And here’s something cheeky for you- Rule #4: Flirt with good stories but marry only good stocks.”
“But StockRats, when would you consider late as being late?” asked Rex.
“Rex. We say it's late not because it's really late. Some good market scalpers can trade in and out within seconds on late news. But these are very disciplined and specialised market traders. They know that they are playing with the ‘time-bombs’, and they clearly see the diminishing profit margins. More importantly, they set their expectations right. They are willing to take on very small profit margins. Most of the times, one or two bids is what they go for. But they trade in huge quantities to make up their profits and do not carry their positions overnight. By doing so, they reduce their risk exposure of uncertainties and being caught at the peak to the minimum while focusing on getting the momentum of price movements which requires very sharp and quick reflexes. It is very intense trading that requires decision making and judgements by the split seconds and only very few are successful at it. These are the only people that we know who are able to survive and thrive at the last tier of the market food chain. It takes a very special mentality to be in this class. And out of the whole industry, we know only less than 20 individuals who can do that. Amongst them, only less than 5 of them become multi-millionaires. Until you master the basic and only when you can really see the true side of market’s anatomy, we strongly suggest that you keep to our curriculum which is equally effective as trading and investment strategies but gives you more time to think and react. However, as a general rule of thumb, you are late when you set your expectations out of what the fundamentals of a stock can support. If you do use chart, you might want to look out for the 80 degree price gradient too, it’s quite useful as an indicator of an exhaustion ‘sprint’. ”
“In the meantime, here’s a little something for you to decorate your fish tank. We want to you stare at these rules just like they are your favourite fishes.”
Rule#1: Buy a stock not because you like the story but you think others will like the story;
Rule#2: Never buy a late story [unless you are pro-traders];
Rule#3: Never buy stocks that cannot provide stories [that bail you out later];
Rule#4: Flirt with stories but marry good stocks.
Think: What is a good stock?
o A stock that's a good price runner but no fundamental?
o A stock with good fundamentals but doesn’t move?
o A stock with good fundamentals and is a runner too?
• The stock market trend is quite like a fashion trend. The stock market is a hyper fashion market where you as a purchaser sought stocks for the purpose of reselling them at a profit which are in the trend.
o A bad purchaser buys fashion to his own likings, not his target customers. He goes out of trend.
o A good purchaser knows what is in the fashion. He buys stocks that are ‘hot’. But he knows he should sell them before they become out-dated.
o The better purchaser is one who can foresee what would be the next ‘in’ thing of the fashion world. He anticipates and stock in advance.
o The best purchaser considers not only the fashion trend but his purchase price too.
• The point about taking profits while the ‘nail is still hot’ is that you have to realise that stories are meant for selling , not buying.
• There are 2 types of price movements; one that the big players want you to participate. And the other one which they don't need your participation yet.
• When they want you, the news will get to you. And they will be able to ‘justify’ the price moves with stories. That’s when you are wanted.
• There are times when you might find that stocks move without any apparent reason. That’s when they don't want you to join the fun, not yet. They are still creating their profit ‘buffer’. Get to the level where they anticipated the next waves of results or news should substantiate and then they will welcome you to play by starting to ‘market’ their stocks again.
• So, a smart player should make use of ‘marketing’ efforts of the big players and not be enticed into their marketing gimmicks. But there is a problem which these big players know about the mass market; most of us cannot resist the ‘temptations’ of seemingly easy money.
• What happens to a successful long term investor is that they unknowingly ride the tide with the big players. They sit back and let them do all the marketing jobs and taking care of the share supply.
• What happens to a not so fortunate player who’s caught at market peak is sitting on the fence with his high priced stocks hoping that something could be done to turn the stock around. But the big players have already done their best in promoting the stock and you have bought the ‘maximum’ potential.
Seeing is believing. An example of story and if you love stories, follow this link http://untappedwealthonline.com
stay tuned for more...
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