"After all, the conclusion of an impending deep
recession is much psychological and self-fulfilling, hence a simple bottom –up psychological
antidote should do its bit. Long before then, bargains of distressed assets around the world,
including stock markets will be swept off the shelves unnoticed and the grand economic cycle
begins its work clockwise again."
Good Morning Clients and Friends,
As it is, from the day Sub prime Mortgage Failure in the United States came to light, flux of negative propositions dominate all major financial headlines. We have really yet been granted any break nor comfort since. At the going, I am concerned with a self-fulfilling prophecy that may transform guided perceptions into reality in time.
In view of the present ailing economy and volatile stock market, I will like to provide my humble insight of an alternate perspective to the current situation.
For more details, please refer to attachment. Expect the unexpected.
For more information or enquiries, please feel free to contact us at General:xxxxxxxxxxx
Faithfully,
Riches to Rags
At its peak of combined global GDP, barely a year ago, our world was estimated to be worth a
whopping US$70 trillion according to CIA World Fact Book. Today, we are in the face of an
extraordinary chapter of a perceived economic situation in history which from all appearances
would get nowhere but only gloomier and worse each day. Since the failure of US Sub-prime
mortgage came to light, our minds are constantly marinated with the ‘worst-to -come’ news. The
only surprise to our desperate world now is that which comes in any magnitude of positive note or
hope. Barclays’ management statement of confidence made on the 26th January 2009,
highlighted on its better than expected result and that it did not require any assistance from the
government, drove its shares up by almost 80% on Monday and rising above the 100% mark as I
write. These unprecedented surprises are very much the result of investors’ visibility being fogged
by off surface interpretation of profit and loss statements in the last few quarters. Airline Company
Boeing for example, would remain profitable if not for exceptional occurrence like strike and
litigation. As it is, we are not at all surprised by now when companies report revenue and profits
drop, losses, bankruptcies or job cuts.
BUT is this pessimism realistic?
At the most rudimentary of economic functionality, our very basic needs for existence will have to
be met, implying that companies rendering basic services and products shall remain in existence
to meet these demand. As of January 2009, our global population of 6.756 billion should support
the case. This is the ‘lowest point of criticality’ or the minimum to sustain lives, so to speak. We
will not stop eating, drinking, traveling or communicating. We will not wake up one day to find that
our internet has stopped working due to the collapse of our service providers. Our newsmen will
continue to feed us with substances required for us to stay informed, and they probably would not
substitute water for ink cartridges. Well, only a little lesser of each at worst. Effectively, we can
only concede that global consumers are downgrading from high expectations of luxury to basic
needs and requirements. Survival is today’s challenge and mission on the top of the agenda list
of companies. We can see them realigning and trimming to manage the given new equation in
this period of crisis.
Burnout of Luck.
Since the World War 2, global economy has expanded exponentially with growths and
advancements in all and remaining parts (emerging markets) of the world. China and India, for
example, took the limelight with astounding double digit GDP growth rate. In all, the US sub prime
crisis has merely served in ordinary to punctuate this inevitable course as our overheated global
economy reached its ‘highest point of criticality’, something we happily conjured up. The mobile
phone makers cannot expect us to carry 3 to 5 handsets each. Car makers cannot rely on us to
have at least 2 cars. Developers cannot bet that we own more properties than what our income
can support. But shareholders and investors were expecting infinite growth in profits and revenue
from Intel, IBM, and Ford. What we are going through today is essentially part of the selfcorrective
dynamics of a knowledge-based economy on the deficits and ‘pockets’ of inefficiency
hidden within the ‘super-macro’ cycle during the rapid expansion phase pinned with double digit
inflations which consequently overheated the economies. This is typical of our world economy
reaching a peak level of maximum output where any further expansion will not be fundamentally
supported by real demand, but rather artificially sustained with excessive redundancy and ‘airpockets’
vulnerable to bubble.( blame it on human’s creativity and greed if you wish to )-
analogically similar to an indigestion in biological terms. It is no wonder we are now verily
disappointed with the truth that our pace of growth had outrun the fundamentals that supported
the economic scaffold.
The Resilient Mankind – Time to Expect the Unexpected.
Nonetheless, we are in safe hands as our elites now turn their full attention to corrective
measures in response to call of this financial crisis. Through decades of accumulating economic
experiences and insights, our financial world has faithfully developed a decent framework of tools
to respond to the most demanding period, ( 97’ Asian Financial Crisis, Dotcom Bubble, SARS
epidemic , etc ) and unless we choose otherwise, these systems will continue to serve its
defensive intents when called upon. At the top of the global community hierarchy, collectively,
government bodies have taken on massive fiscal and monetary plans to resuscitate the failing
momentum of a non-sustainable economic growth. From around the world, we have seen
economic stimulus size of $700b from US, $300b from Japan, $586b from China and S$20.5b
from Singapore. Also, companies have swiftly taken counter measures in cost reductions such as
job cuts and accounting contingencies. From an onset of dramatic job losses as a result of
collapsed firms, the financial siren has tapered to that of preventive measures where job cuts are
meant to streamline operations and maintain profitability. Most major companies in US have
already made necessary financial adjustments and statements of “pessimism”, especially the financial sector
which is currently trading at undermined valuations as a result of humongous write-offs by banks, reporting
unrealized losses into the profit and loss statements. The rationale is that everybody is preparing for the
worst. Man-on-streets like you and I are tightening our belts, also, in anticipation of the ‘worst time
of our lives’. These knee-jerk counter reactions though simple in theory and as seemingly
unsuspecting in consequence as what had resulted in today’s global financial failure, shall serve
well in practical, its roles on accelerating the process of recovery to a ‘more-than-bargained-for’
and ‘earlier-than-expected’ pay-off. Psychologically, the common consensus of a “deep long
recession” works to amplify the boosting effect of any positive surprises, potentially from impairment writeback on improved valuations, lower operating expenses due to cost reduction exercises, hence better
profits, etc. AND on these bases, we can see that the reality is that systematic failure and doom in
present day global financials can never withhold its place against today’s market intelligence
longer than one’s non-statistical and hypothetical assumption or conclusion on the doom state.
Noticeable or not, we will achieve a leaner and more logical foundation for a new start.
Unconventional Strategy – A little word of comfort will do a great deal.
A top-down strategy will take a longer time to permeate through the layers of targeted recipients
of economy while a bottom-up approach technically kick-start the consumers’ confidence and
sentiment. And with the avalanche of real fiscal benefits infused since the onset of what is known
as an unprecedented crisis, we have in combination, resolutions from multiple angles that should
double up the pace of an otherwise protracted financial acrimony as anticipated amongst keen
observers. The good news is that we are receiving remedies from these ends as a package,
though bias on former for the time being. And as we run out of ‘news and ideas of pessimism’,
economists and analysts will start their singing to the ‘tunes of hope’. We are at a very sensitive
stage by which a little words of comfort to say “We Believe the Worst is behind us and we are
largely OVERSOLD…” from the Wall-Streeters, European counterparts, smart money and the
influential others will do a great deal to support or even twist the fate of the entire dire episode
into a wild chase for quick money. And this amazing statement doesn’t cost a trace fraction of a
billion dollar and requires no bill to pass through. After all, the conclusion of an impending deep
recession is much psychological and self-fulfilling, hence a simple bottom –up psychological
antidote should do its bit. Long before then, bargains of distressed assets around the world,
including stock markets will be swept off the shelves unnoticed and the grand economic cycle
begins its work clockwise again.
Wong Cheng Kuan
Head - Dealing
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSecurities ( Singapore)
Autxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx)
Email: wongchengkuanxxxxxxxxxxxxcom
Contact: 6xxxxxxxxx3
0 comments:
Post a Comment