This is not exactly the gold finale I mentioned in my previous blog. It seems to me more like a temporary price correction and most probably the last one before the last wave up and I would expect that it will cross the 2,000 mark into near 2,100 before the crash comes happens.
IF my simplistic guess is correct, then the recent strengthening of the dollar [now1USD=1.248] is just a trap to lure long-positions that should follow by a sell-down that will break the 1 USD=1.20 Singdollar mark and rallying the Gold to break the 2,000 per ounce mark as the dollar continues to weaken below 1.20 to 1.10 mark. The theoretical and so-far-proper relationship is inverse for gold and dollar. Towards, its finale, there will be contradiction where dollar and gold relationship becomes neutral and 'chaotic'.
My pivoting basis of assumptions, other than reading out news, technical indicators, is on the notion that given the upward magnitude of GOLD from 800 to the current 1,800, it would have taken the bulls alot to scoop up the supplies of gold in the market place and therefore, unlikely to be able to off-load such quantity unless there are sufficient 'reasons' to convince speculators and 'naive' players to come in and carry the pricey gold-babies.
The ONLY possibility that Gold price will do a 'gradual' fall instead of a steep crash without crossing 2,000 mark is that it has fundamental value that support it above UD$1,500/-, which I don't see at all. I think that even adjusting for inflation over the last 2 decades, any price level above the range of 1,000 -1,200 will be maximum without the speculative premium that it has incorporated now.
Again, I may be wrong this time [again] so don't take this too seriously. I am keening watching out for contradictions in the market place that suggest the smarts are trying to sell to the fools.I detected one, but find that it is only the beginning of the end. More tell-tales are required, but of course not on hindsight brilliance.
IF my simplistic guess is correct, then the recent strengthening of the dollar [now1USD=1.248] is just a trap to lure long-positions that should follow by a sell-down that will break the 1 USD=1.20 Singdollar mark and rallying the Gold to break the 2,000 per ounce mark as the dollar continues to weaken below 1.20 to 1.10 mark. The theoretical and so-far-proper relationship is inverse for gold and dollar. Towards, its finale, there will be contradiction where dollar and gold relationship becomes neutral and 'chaotic'.
My pivoting basis of assumptions, other than reading out news, technical indicators, is on the notion that given the upward magnitude of GOLD from 800 to the current 1,800, it would have taken the bulls alot to scoop up the supplies of gold in the market place and therefore, unlikely to be able to off-load such quantity unless there are sufficient 'reasons' to convince speculators and 'naive' players to come in and carry the pricey gold-babies.
The ONLY possibility that Gold price will do a 'gradual' fall instead of a steep crash without crossing 2,000 mark is that it has fundamental value that support it above UD$1,500/-, which I don't see at all. I think that even adjusting for inflation over the last 2 decades, any price level above the range of 1,000 -1,200 will be maximum without the speculative premium that it has incorporated now.
Again, I may be wrong this time [again] so don't take this too seriously. I am keening watching out for contradictions in the market place that suggest the smarts are trying to sell to the fools.I detected one, but find that it is only the beginning of the end. More tell-tales are required, but of course not on hindsight brilliance.
0 comments:
Post a Comment